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Da_bear
flint knapper
Username: Da_bear
Post Number: 987
Registered: 5-2003
| | Posted on Thursday, May 15, 2008 - 1:32 am: |     |
till 2012, not another century.
If you choose not to decide, you still have made a choice. |
Don
flint knapper
Username: Don
Post Number: 1209
Registered: 5-2003
| | Posted on Thursday, May 15, 2008 - 2:26 am: | |
Housing in Sydney is still headed south except for very high value ($5 million plus) places. Some people always have money.
Here in Godzone country, Armidale, housing is strong on the back of sizable investment in the area by large chains such as Woolworths, Kmart and others. We've now got a typical Sydney suburbs mall, and it's usually packed when I go downtown.
The share market and other investments favoured by superannuation (pension) funds has turned the corner, we're back to mid - January unit prices after things looked grim in March, but we're not yet to October 2007 prices.
The Pacific Peso is at $US0.93
Things are looking good here.
take what you want and pay for it |
Scott
storyteller
Username: Scott
Post Number: 2371
Registered: 5-2003
| | Posted on Thursday, May 15, 2008 - 3:20 am: | |
Gotcha bear - thanks. I think things will get much worse, I understand that condos are not including in US housing stats!!! That's crazy! Apparently condo complexes are having really tough times because so many people can't pay their mortgage, much less their condo fees, so the properties are going into disrepair, further deflating values.
Canada is in its 12th year of budget surpluses. The Gov't has just announced a doubling of the defense budget (at least that is the target), we are swimming in oil and natural gas, our pension system in so far in the black that we could buy most countries and housing continues to move up - though condominium sales faltered in Vancouver, a notoriously overheated market. However, things are slowing down, so it is simply a matter of a soft landing - IF - Canada can avoid a real estate meltdown. I think we need one.
Our resource industries are hot, except for forest products - the US slowdown has killed that sector. Our industrial heartland is in recession - again because of its reliance on the US.
Waiting lines at hospitals and other horror stories are getting smaller and less plentiful, but gov'ts are pouring dollars into the sector at an unsustainable rate - if taxes are to continue to fall - which they have by about 40% since 2000. Our consumption tax has been reduced form 7% to 5% in the last two years. Interest rates are at historical lows, though not as low as they were two years ago. Inflation is non-existant. We have a trade and current account surplus.
There is social harmony and the Quebec question has been given a semi-permanent dirt nap. We continue to be among the worlds highest per capita energy users and polluters - whistling merrily as the world goes to hell in a hand basket. Polar bears were put on the US endangered list today - they haven't in Canada, but should be - all politics.
The Loonie is at $US0.9957
Things aren't bad at all - but that can change quickly.
If I couldn't live here, I would haul ass off to Oz for sure.
Scott
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
Ces gens, Jondalar, ils sourient. Ils me sourient. - Ayla |
Da_bear
flint knapper
Username: Da_bear
Post Number: 989
Registered: 5-2003
| | Posted on Tuesday, May 20, 2008 - 1:35 pm: | |
Bloomberg
Perhaps the bottom is near:
May 20 (Bloomberg) -- A drop in U.S. stock volatility to the lowest level since July may prove temporary as traders boost bets that the benchmark index will rise 36 percent in two months.
The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, or VIX, tumbled by more than half since March as stocks rallied from their lows of the year after the Federal Reserve backed the bailout of Bear Stearns Cos. The VIX fell as low as 15.82 yesterday after reaching a five-year closing high March 17. Traders expect it to rebound to 21.58, July futures show.
``People are unwinding their short-term hedges and putting on long-term hedges, so that's depressing the VIX,'' said Simon Emrich, head of North American Quantitative Derivatives Strategies at Morgan Stanley in New York. ``Once investors have completed resetting their hedges the VIX should come back up.''
The VIX, calculated from prices paid for Standard & Poor's 500 Index options no more than 30 days from expiration, doesn't reflect expectations beyond that period. The futures, which have longer maturities, show investors expect more U.S. stock volatility for the rest of this year.
Higher readings in the VIX, which measures the cost of insurance against declines in the S&P 500 Index, indicate traders expect larger share-price swings in the next 30 days. The VIX is considered a stock market fear gauge because it usually rises as stocks fall.
Traders are speculating record oil prices and the deepest housing slump since the Great Depression will lead to wider stock swings, said David Krein, president of DTB Capital LLC. The index rose 3.3 percent yesterday to 17.01 after earlier dropping as much as 4 percent.
`Don't Be Fooled'
``VIX futures are pricing in near-term risk'' for the stock market, said Krein, whose New York-based firm advises hedge funds on derivatives and structured transactions. ``Don't be fooled by the VIX at 16.''
The index rose as high as 35.60 on March 17. The S&P 500 has gained 12 percent since that day after the Fed cut its discount rate on direct loans to commercial banks and agreed to back a rescue of Bear Stearns by JPMorgan Chase & Co.
June VIX futures fell 1.9 percent yesterday to 19.76 while August contracts added 0.2 percent to 21.73. October futures gained 0.1 percent to 22.04.
The difference between June VIX futures and contracts expiring in later months shows an average volatility expectation of 21.95 for the eight months starting in July.
`VIX Can Rise'
``For the VIX to come down this fast from 36 to 16 is too far, too fast,'' said Michael McCarty, an options strategist at Meridian Equity Partners Inc. in New York. ``June and July futures are pricing in a higher VIX. There's a lot of room above here that the VIX can rise and I expect that it will.''
The S&P 500 slid 9.9 percent in the first three months of the year for its worst quarterly performance in five years. The benchmark for U.S. equities gained 12 percent since its March 10 low this year, and yesterday's 0.1 percent advance pared its loss for the year to 2.8 percent.
Lower VIX levels preceded stock market declines at least twice in the last seven months. The volatility index dropped to 16.12 on Oct. 9 before a 10 percent plunge over the next seven weeks. After the VIX fell to 18.47 on Dec. 21, the benchmark for U.S. stocks dropped 14 percent over the next three months.
``There's a lot of risk still in the market,'' said Ben Londergan, co-chief executive of Group One Trading, the primary market maker for VIX options. ``Inflation's rising, so is unemployment, and I don't see housing prices rebounding for quite a while.''
Bloomberg
TED Spread at Nine-Month Low, Signals Credit Easing (Update1)
By Lukanyo Mnyanda and Aaron Pan
May 20 (Bloomberg) -- Lending confidence at banks rose to the highest level in more than nine months, according to a key indicator, signaling the global credit crunch may be easing.
The so-called TED spread, the difference between what the U.S. government and banks pay to borrow in dollars for three months, dropped below 78 basis points for the first time since August. It held at that level as of 1:41 p.m. in London, after falling to 77.7 basis points. The cost of borrowing dollars overnight dropped today to the lowest level in 3 1/2 years.
The Federal Reserve has cut borrowing costs seven times since September, offered new loans to banks and provided $29 billion of financing to secure Bear Stearns Cos.' takeover by JPMorgan Chase & Co. in an effort to stave off a recession fueled by a slump in lending. The cost of borrowing began soaring last year as banks hoarded cash after the U.S. subprime- mortgage market collapsed.
``The worst of the fears about the liquidity crisis appear to be alleviating,'' said Peter Jolly, head of markets research in Sydney at NabCapital, the investment-banking arm of National Australia Bank Ltd. ``Liquidity is becoming more available ever since the bold moves by the Fed.''
The TED spread, the difference in the yield on three-month U.S. Treasury bills and the three-month London interbank offered rate, or Libor, for dollars, was as wide as 2.03 percentage points in March as credit-market losses deepened. The world's financial companies have reported about $329 billion in writedowns and losses since the start of 2007.
`Not Out of Woods'
The overnight London interbank offered rate, or Libor, for dollars dropped 4 basis points to 2.11 percent today, the lowest level since Dec. 9, 2004, the British Bankers' Association said. The three-month rate declined 2 basis points to 2.66 percent.
``Things are definitely looking better but we're not out of the woods yet,'' said Torsten Slok, an economist at Deutsche Bank AG in New York. ``People are still nervous and there's lot of stress in the money markets.''
The difference between the rate banks charge for three- month dollar loans relative to the overnight indexed swap rate, the so-called Libor-OIS spread, indicates lenders are continuing to hoard cash. The spread was 66 basis points today, compared with an average 11 basis points in the 12 months to July 2007, before the start of the credit crunch. It widened to 100 basis points on Dec. 4.
Oppenheimer, IMF
The credit crisis will extend into and even beyond 2009 as banks write off more than $170 billion of additional reserves by the end of next year, analysts at Oppenheimer & Co. led by Meredith Whitney wrote in a research note today. The International Monetary Fund's Deputy Managing Director John Lipsky said the U.S. housing slump still poses ``serious risks'' to global financial stability.
The Standard & Poor's 500 Index of stocks has gained almost 10 percent since the TED spread reached its high for the year on March 19, as some investors bet the worst of the crisis is over.
``The healing process in the credit crunch has been picking up with speed,'' said David Keeble, head of fixed-income strategy at Calyon, the investment-banking arm of Credit Agricole SA, France's second-biggest bank.
The credit crunch started in July when two Bear Stearns hedge funds that invested in securities tied to U.S. subprime mortgages collapsed. The company, once the biggest underwriter of U.S. mortgage bonds, had to bail out the funds and take possession of many of the instruments.
Pimco Bet
Two-year Treasury note yields rose to the highest since January last week as signs the credit crisis is nearing an end gave investors the confidence to buy higher yielding assets. Pacific Investment Management Co., which manages the world's largest bond fund, last week advised investors to switch to company debt, which it said may benefit as policy makers seek to boost liquidity.
``We've seen some degree of easing in the dollar rates in the past week or so,'' said Barry Moran, a money-market trader at the Bank of Ireland in Dublin. ``The Fed has introduced a lot of liquidity adding measures and they seem to be working over time. Hopefully this is the start of a trend.''
If you choose not to decide, you still have made a choice. |
Da_bear
flint knapper
Username: Da_bear
Post Number: 990
Registered: 5-2003
| | Posted on Tuesday, May 20, 2008 - 6:49 pm: | |
Gotcha bear - thanks. I think things will get much worse, I understand that condos are not including in US housing stats!!! That's crazy! Apparently condo complexes are having really tough times because so many people can't pay their mortgage, much less their condo fees, so the properties are going into disrepair, further deflating values.
I don't understand. I googled several of my stat sources and all of them included owner occupied condos and SFR as the same thing.
Investment SFR and Condos the same.
If you choose not to decide, you still have made a choice. |
Scott
storyteller
Username: Scott
Post Number: 2394
Registered: 5-2003
| | Posted on Sunday, May 25, 2008 - 5:52 pm: | |
I was referring to the index that is most oft quoted in international media:
The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index
This doesn't include condos or coops or anything above the FM/FM 417k threshold etc.
Scott
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
Ces gens, Jondalar, ils sourient. Ils me sourient. - Ayla |
Scott
storyteller
Username: Scott
Post Number: 2559
Registered: 5-2003
| | Posted on Monday, October 27, 2008 - 4:13 am: | |
This about sums up my view of the rescue plan so far:
source
In France and the UK, the gov't put money into the banks with the caveat that they LEND that money out. No such requirement has been made in the US case. Sigh.
Scott
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
Ces gens, Jondalar, ils sourient. Ils me sourient. - Ayla |
Cavebear
healer
Username: Cavebear
Post Number: 3425
Registered: 9-2003
| | Posted on Friday, November 07, 2008 - 4:26 am: | |
I am outraged to learn that US banks receiving Federal aid have given some of that out to their shareholders as dividends! Dividends are only given to shareholders when there are profits!!!
I used to joke, "first we kill all the lawyers". Well, now I say "kill off all the bank CEOs and Boards". And I'm not laughing so much about that now...
This is just one more "poke a stick in their eyes" grab of taxpayer money by the Bush administration. It is so unbelievable that the population doesn't even seem to notice.
We here have almost become inured to economic pillaging, and torture, and wiretapping, and taxation manipulation, and general law-breaking. I can't understand it.
I scream the truth to my fellow citizens and no one wants to hear. I talk the truth softly to them and they don't hear. My fingers are worn out from telling people how bad our government became.
But at least they voted right this time...
Now I await when Bush and Cheney are internationally indicted on war crimes. As they should be!
Thank you, Carl Sagan and Richard Dawkins... |
Da_bear
flint knapper
Username: Da_bear
Post Number: 1037
Registered: 5-2003
| | Posted on Friday, November 07, 2008 - 3:02 pm: | |
Unfortunately, dividends already declared are a legal obligation. They had to do so.
Lots of people, some, like my FIL, absolutely depend on the money. However, they will probably lower or cancel the next dividend.
If you choose not to decide, you still have made a choice. |
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